Live-service Games at Loss, Switch 2 Steals the Show; Predictions for 2024
Live-service games will remain on top, but will lose heavily in the eyes of game developers in 2024. That's one of the predictions of analysts, who also expect, among other things, the debut of Switch 2.
Theories about AI introduction in game development are not the only predictions for the game industry in 2024. Admittedly, the interviewees of Gamesindustry.biz do not agree on everything, but even beyond the topic of artificial intelligence, their predictions have points in common.
Enter Switch 2
Although officially Nintendo is still not talking about a new console, rumors of Switch's successor have intensified in 2023. Not least because it will soon be seven years since the release of the Switch. Leaks, patents, job offers - recent months have given us ample reason to believe in the imminent release of "Switch 2" (as the undisclosed console has come to be called).
Analysts from Niko Partners, MIDiA Research, Kantan Games, Ampere Analysis and Newzoo believe that Nintendo's new console will be one of the pillars of the gaming industry in 2024. At the same time, they mention their predictions for the device: focus on the portable aspect (after all, it was the Switch's hybrid nature that brought it success), a shared library with its predecessor (which will allow for games to be transferred to the newer platform), and a price of around $400.
Live-service games: profitable but unpopular with developers
Interestingly, Piers Harding-Rolls (Ampere Analytics) expects a "shift in the balance" in investment between live-service games and single-player titles. In contrast, Tom Wijman (Newzoo) states outright that while live-service games will remain the top earners, developers and publishers will begin to move away from such projects in favor of premium games (i.e., those requiring a traditional, one-time purchase).
The reason is simple: huge competition in the market. In recent years, many developers have tried to succeed in this field, and in 2024, too, there will be numerous live-service games.
Combined with the still popular titles from previous years, this can make it much more difficult to break out. Add that the cost of developing and, above all, maintaining a live-service game is not small. Many studios may find pouring a considerable amount of money into a game forced to fight not only against fresh competition, but also the undisputed ruling giants like Fortnite, Counter-Strike and Valorant, being too much of a risk.
Microsoft, soulslike and social media
Analysts also devoted space to discussing, among other things, Microsoft's possible moves after Activision Blizzard acquisition (including the debut of a mobile store), the invasion of soulslike games inspired by Elden Ring and the evolution of Game Pass-like subscriptions and so-called instant games (mini-games playable on social networks).
There are also speculation about a possible project from Square-Enix with "crypto elements" and about further investments from Netflix in streaming. And, unfortunately, about more mass layoffs (although not as many as in the past year).
