2024 Game Awards predictions: Who will win?

This Thursday at 4:30 PM Pacific Time, Geoff Keighley will take the stage in Los Angeles to host the tenth annual Game Awards. It will be a night full of game trailers, announcements, world premieres, and, apparently, a musical performance from Snoop Dogg. Oh, and a few awards will be given out too. Personally, this will be my second time attending after last year, and I am very curious how the show will be different.

Last year, the show was packed full of celebrity guests from the likes of Matthew McConaughey to Timothée Chalamet. There was no shortage of trailers for upcoming games, and unfortunately, a few too many awards were shared in rapid-fire fashion between those trailers. This included last year’s Best Independent Game, meaning that the small team behind indie RPG Sea of Stars didn’t get to stand on stage to accept their well-earned award.

So, how will this show be different? Will it be different? We won’t know until Thursday, but if I were to make a prediction, I think there will be fewer celebrity appearances, and the winner of Best Independent Game will get the chance to speak. Geoff Keighley and the Game Awards always want to draw a big crowd for the show, but there might have been enough backlash last year that things will be different this time around.

Generally, those are a few predictions for the show, but what about the specific awards? It’s hard to argue that last year’s show was stolen by Larian Studios’ Baldur’s Gate 3, which walked away with six total awards, including Game of the Year. No one game seems poised to completely steal the show this year, but anything is possible. Here are a few of my predictions for this year’s Game Awards:

Game of the Year

Nominees:

1. Astro Bot;
2. Balatro;
3. Black Myth: Wukong;
4. Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree;
5. Final Fantasy VII Rebirth;
6. Metaphor: ReFantazio.

Starting with the biggest question of all, what will win Game of the Year? Amazingly, all six of these nominees has a genuine shot at the ultimate award. But with competition so tight, anything can be a deciding factor. Black Myth: Wukong was one of the best-selling games of 2024, and already has a Game of the Year award under its belt from the Golden Joysticks. But, Black Myth: Wukong is much more popular among the gaming audience than the critics and journalists that make up the Game Awards jury of voters. It makes sense that Black Myth: Wukong would win at the Golden Joysticks, an entirely fan-voted award show. Even with ten percent of the Game Awards votes coming from the general audience, it likely won’t be enough to come out on top.

Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree, on the other hand, is one of this year's top three highly reviewed releases, tied with fellow nominees Metaphor: ReFantazio and Astro Bot at 94/100 on Metacritic. When the nominees were announced last month though, Shadow of the Erdtree’s nomination sparked a debate about if DLC should be nominated in this category at all. No matter where you land on the debate, the contention could be what keeps Shadow of the Erdtree from taking the win.

Then there is this year’s indie breakout: Balatro. The fact that one person developed this rogue-lite deck builder and that it genuinely has a shot at winning over so many other huge team, big-budget games in this category is a feat in and of itself. An indie game has never won Game of the Year before, but one of the biggest obstacles for Balatro to overcome will be recency bias. Balatro was released on February 20th of this year, long before most of the other nominees. Releasing a mobile version in September could be enough to counteract that, but nothing is certain.

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth did win the Most Anticipated category last year and is tied for the most nominations this year with Astro Bot at seven, which could be an early sign of victory. But despite the popularity of Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, it does lose some points in terms of recency as well, releasing in February only nine days after Balatro. Competing RPG Metaphor: ReFantazio has become a critical darling over the last month and a half since it launched. Many jury members were likely still deep into their playthrough of Metaphor during the voting period, which can’t be said for Final Fantasy.

It really could go to any of these nominees, but I do think the most likely winner is Astro Bot. It has seven nominations, just like Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, and is tied at the top of this year's critical reviews with Metaphor: ReFantazio and Shadow of the Erdtree. It will certainly be close, but I think RPG fans will be split between Metaphor and Final Fantasy, leaving just enough room for Astro Bot to take the majority.

Other Categories

The Game of the Year contenders are likely to dominate the other categories as well. It’s hard to imagine Balatro not winning Best Independent Game and Best Debut Indie, despite the high quality of other indie games like Animal Well, UFO 50, and Neva. Astro Bot seems like a shoo-in for the Action/Adventure and Family categories considering no other Game of the Year contenders are nominated there. Meanwhile Final Fantasy VII Rebirth and Metaphor: ReFantazio will duke it out in categories like Best Role-Playing Game and Best Narrative. Black Myth: Wukong also seems ready to win the Best Action category even though other favorites like Helldivers 2 and Warhammer 40K: Space Marine 2 are nominated.

But the rest of the categories are much more up for debate, with at least two or more games gunning for the winning spot. Here are a few highlights:

Best Sim/Strategy Game

Nominees:

1. Age of Mythology Retold;
2. Frostpunk 2;
3. Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess;
4. Manor Lords;
5. Unicorn Overlord.

This category is filled with games that deserve the award. From the solo-developer behind Manor Lords, the long-awaited Frostpunk 2, and one of my personal picks for the year: Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess. While I might pick Kunitsu-Gami for its interesting blend of tactics and action, it’s still more likely that Manor Lords or Frostpunk 2 will take the award.

But don’t underestimate the other nominees. Unicorn Overlord is a tactical RPG published by Atlus, the developer behind Metaphor: ReFantazio. My prediction is that Manor Lords takes this win with a little help from the audience vote.

Most Anticipated Game

Nominees:

1. Death Stranding 2: On the Beach;
2. Ghost of Yotei;
3. Grand Theft Auto VI;
4. Metroid Prime 4: Beyond;
5. Monster Hunter Wilds.

The Most Anticipated Game award doesn’t celebrate a game that released this year. Instead, it measures hype level for what’s to come. There are a lot of great games nominated for this category. Metroid Prime 4: Beyond has been in development since 2017, and finally has a release date. Monster Hunter Wilds looks like an incredible multiplayer action game that will finally be the follow up Monster Hunter Worlds fans have been waiting for.

Death Stranding 2: On the Beach might have had one of the strangest trailers released this year, but there’s no denying how excited fans are either. And the surprise announcement of the sequel to Ghost of Tsushima, Ghost of Yotei, also looks like it will be another amazing action-packed open world. Any of these games could go on to win Game of the Year next year.

But it doesn’t take a games media writer to tell you that Grand Theft Auto VI will take this award without question. Rockstar Games’ follow up to the unbelievably popular Grand Theft Auto V has been in the works for nearly a decade. Will it live up to the hype? Will it actually release in 2025? That’s something we’ll have to wait and see. But right now there’s no doubt that the hype is here.

Best Adaptation

Nominees:

1. Arcane;
2. Fallout;
3. Knuckles;
4. Like a Dragon: Yakuza;
5. Tomb Raider: The Legend of Lara Croft.

Video game movies and television have had quite an exciting few years. The Last of Us was a huge critical success last year, not to mention the enormity of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. And this past April, Fallout was a smash hit for an original yet faithful adaptation of Bethesda’s beloved video game series.

For most of this year it felt like Fallout was the clear winner, but then Arcane season two arrived. Season one of the critically acclaimed League of Legends adaptation won this category in 2022, so it makes sense that season two would take the award again. Fallout is great competition, and maybe voters will want to award a new show rather than a previous winner, but Arcane really is just that good.

Best Multiplayer

Nominees:

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops 6;
2. Helldivers 2;
3. Super Mario Party Jamboree;
4. Tekken 8;
5. Warhammer 40K: Space Marine 2.

Five of the six Game of the Year nominees are single player experiences. Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree is the one exception, but it’s certainly not known for its multiplayer. This leaves the Best Multiplayer category open for some of the year's biggest games.

Helldivers 2 had its issues this year. The momentary fiasco of forcing players to sign up for a PlayStation Network account was met with swift backlash and review bombing, causing publisher Sony to quickly reverse course. Despite this, Helldivers 2 is an undeniable juggernaut in the gaming world this year.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a family friendly title on an otherwise generally violent list of nominees. It certainly is an excellent addition to the long running list of Mario Party games, but is it different enough for critics to vote for it over a more original experience like Helldivers 2?

Tekken 8 is an excellent fighting game, and could easily win within that category, but among general multiplayer games there might not be enough fighting game fans voting for this over other nominees. I don’t want to count out Warhammer 40K: Space Marine 2 either, but it seems like this is the category where Helldivers 2 gets its flowers.

Best Fighting Game

Nominees:

1. Dragonball: Sparking! Zero;
2. Granblue Fantasy Versus: Rising;
3. Marvel vs Capcom Fighting Collection: Arcade Classics;
4. MultiVersus;
5. Tekken 8.

Tekken 8 might not win Best Multiplayer Game this year, but Best Fighting Game is a different story. The standout competitor in this category is Dragonball: Sparking! Zero, which arrived in October to a surprisingly warm critical reception. Dragonball also has recency on its side, since Tekken 8 was released all the way back in January. It will be interesting to see which way this one goes, but Tekken 8 still seems like the solid choice.

Conclusion

I want to shout out a few more things before wrapping up. Neva, from Nomada Studio earned a nomination in Best Art Direction alongside four Game of the Year contenders, beating out Balatro and Final Fantasy VII Rebirth in what was nearly another Game of the Year category. I would be happy to see it win as it was one of the most beautiful games I played this year, but, of course, it has some tough competition.

I am very curious what will win the Games for Impact category, I don’t know the games well enough to make a prediction. But given Abubakar Salim’s heartfelt announcement of Tales of Kenzera: Zau at last year’s game awards, it would be fitting to see that game take the stage again one year later.

What do you think? What do you think should win Game of the Year? What about other categories? Let us know your thoughts and look forward to Gamepressure’s coverage of the Game Awards later this week!